Time to supersize the SEC?
It’s that time of year again.
You know what I’m talking about. We’ve arrived at the point in the spring where our conversation turns the impending death of the Big XII Conference. We’ve reached the point to where it’s no longer a matter of if the conference will disband but a question of when.
The Big XII signed its own death warrant when they voted against expansion. In 1968 that idea might have flown. We live in a different era of college football. We live in the era of the mega-conference.
When the SEC expanded and brought in Arkansas and South Carolina in 1990, the landscape of college football began to shift. The ACC followed suit by adding longtime independents Florida State and Miami. Since then, the “Power Five” conferences have undergone major changes.
The Big 10 went from 10 teams to 12 and the Big XII went from 12 teams to 10.
Ironic no?
Missouri and Texas A&M joined the SEC while Notre Dame declared South Bend, Ind. was actually on the East Coast. I know the Irish are members of the football ACC, but they still play enough ACC teams to have a conference schedule.
The point I’m trying to make is conferences have finally figured out they have the power to rule college football. The NCAA is merely a paper tiger tagging along with a rubber stamp, begging not to be forgotten.
Certainly when the Big XII folds it will have consequences for the rest of college football. And no conference is in a better position to cherry pick new members like the SEC.
I expect the SEC to add at least four teams from the Big XII. The Big 10 will likely add at least two.
My guess is Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas will join the SEC, a move that will necessitate new divisional alignments — but more on that in a moment.
I know, I know. Kansas in the SEC? What does their football program bring to the table? Truthfully, not much — other than a conference win.
But Kansas also plays basketball and the rivalry with Kentucky would not only make both programs better, it would transform the SEC into a basketball conference to rival the ACC.
As for the other schools remaining Big XII schools, my guess is Iowa State and Kansas State will head to the Big 10.
TCU and Texas Tech could also get SEC invites, but they are long shots. I could see TCU getting an invite to the SEC should Kansas opt for the Big 10 instead.
That leaves Texas, the biggest prize in the Big XII from a revenue standout.
I can’t see the Longhorns joining the SEC and playing second (or co-equal) fiddle to Alabama, not to mention giving up the Longhorn Network. The guys in burnt orange also have a history of not playing nice with others — witness the current state of the Big XII.
Texas is not afraid to take their ball and go home. Ask the former members of the old Southwest Conference.
I don’t see the Longhorns joining a conference anytime soon. Texas will become a high-profile independent in football. The move will allow them to play a schedule that will include Texas A&M once again as well as keeping the “Red River Rivalry” with Oklahoma. In basketball, they will likely follow the Notre Dame model and join a conference with an automatic bid.
Such a decision would also allow Texas to retain all revenue from the Longhorn Network — contingent upon ESPN being able to keep it afloat.
And Baylor?
Would any conference want Baylor right now?
As mentioned earlier, expansion will almost certainly force realignment in the SEC.
The SEC East will likely look something like this:
1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. South Carolina
6. Vanderbilt
7. Alabama
8. Auburn
9. West Virginia
The new SEC West could look like this:
1. Ole Miss
2. Mississippi State
3. Texas A&M
4. Missouri
5. Oklahoma
6. Oklahoma State
7. Arkansas
8. Kansas/TCU
9. LSU
The SEC could also opt to invite TCU and Texas Tech even if Kansas joins and move Ole Miss and Mississippi State to the East.
At that point the SEC East would bear a striking resemblance to the original SEC and the SEC West would look a great deal like the old Southwest Conference.
When will it happen?
As soon as the members of the Big XII not named Texas decides they want to be relevant in the national football conversation.